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Category :Math/Stat Homework
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Posting Date : 2015/07/30 14:40
Due Date : 2014/08/14 10:00
Answered (1 time)
MAT 540 Week 5 Midterm Exam Latest 2014
Question 1
Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
Question 2
An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.
Question 3
A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.
Question 4
A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.
Question 5
Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables.
Question 6
Simulation results will always equal analytical results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted.
Question 7
Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
Question 8
The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.
Question 9
In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.
Question 10
Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?
Question 11
The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.
Question 12
In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by __________ a probability distribution.
Question 13
Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine
Question 14
Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.
Question 15
Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table below. The average number of breakdowns from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.
No. of breakdowns per week Probability Cumulative probability
0 .10 .10
1 .25 .35
2 .36 .71
3 .22 .93
4 .07 1.00
What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns?
Question 16
__________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.
Question 17
__________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.
Question 18
Consider the following graph of sales.
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
Question 19
Consider the following demand and forecast.
Period Demand Forecast
1 7 10
2 12 15
3 18 20
4 22
If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?
Question 20
__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.
Question 21
__________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
Question 22
Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.
Question 23
rob
14, and 15)estion worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows:
Yield, bushels per acre Probability
350 .10
400 .18
450 .50
500 .22
The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80.
What is the expected yield of the crop?
Question 24
Consider the following graph of sales.
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
Question 25
The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.
Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal.
Question 26
A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
Case Sensitivity
Exact Match 0.9772
Exact Match 0.9771
Exact Match 0.9773
Exact Match .9772
Exact Match .9771
Exact Match .9773
Question 27
A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
Question 28
A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
Evaluation Method Case Sensitivity
Exact Match 0.0401
Exact Match 0.0400
Exact Match 0.0402
Exact Match .0401
Exact Match .0400
Exact Match .0402
Question 29
An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D. The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below.
Economic Condition
Poor Average Good Excellent
Investment (S1) (S2) (S3) (S4)
A 50 75 20 30
B 80 15 40 50
C -100 300 -50 10
D 25 25 25 25
If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?
Question 30
The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).
If he uses the maximin criterion, how many new workers will he hire?
Question 31
Consider the following probability distribution:
Demand Probability
0 0.15
1 0.30
2 0.25
3 0.15
4 0.15
Partition 100 numbers from 0 to 99 according to the probability of each demand value, starting with 0. A number from the 100 numbers is going to be selected. What is the corresponding demand value if 62 is selected?
Question 32
Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.
Question 33
The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :
Year Sales Forecast
2003 7 9
2004 12 10
2005 14 15
2006 20 22
2007 16 18
2008 25 21
Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.
Question 34
Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.
What is the coefficient of determination? Note: please report your answer with 2 places after the decimal point.
Question 35
Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.
Year Demand Forecast
2001 16 18
2002 20 19
2003 18 24
Question 36
The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product
Month Actual Demand
March 20
April 25
May 40
June 35
July 30
August 45
If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.
Question 37
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.
Question 38
Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.
Answer
Selected Answer: 91
Correct Answer:
Evaluation Method Correct Answer Case Sensitivity
Exact Match 91
Question 39
This is the data from the last 4 weeks:
Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.
Question 40
Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.
Year Sales
2001 2
2002 4
2003 10
2004 8
2005 14
2006 18
2007 17
2008 20
Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.
Question 1
Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
Question 2
A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.
Question 3
A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.
Question 4
A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.
Question 5
Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.
Question 6
A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.
Question 7
The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.
Question 8
Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.
Question 9
A company markets educational software products, and is ready to place three new products on the market. Past experience has shown that for this particular software, the chance of "success" is 80%. Assume that the probability of success is independent for each product. What is the probability that exactly 1 of the 3 products is successful?
Question 10
Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?
Question 11
The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.
Question 12
Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine
Question 13
A seed value is a(n)
Question 14
In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by __________ a probability distribution.
Question 15
Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.
Question 16
Consider the following demand and forecast.
Period Demand Forecast
1 7 10
2 12 15
3 18 20
4 22
If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?
Question 17
rob
14, and 15)estion worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows:
Yield, bushels per acre Probability
350 .10
400 .18
450 .50
500 .22
The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80.
What is the expected yield of the crop?
Question 18
__________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
Question 19
__________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.
Question 20
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.
Question 21
Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?
Question 22
In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.
Question 23
__________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.
Question 24
__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.
Question 25
A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
Question 26
A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
Question 27
The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.
Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal.
Question 28
A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
Question 29
The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).
If he uses the maximin criterion, how many new workers will he hire?
Question 30
Consider the following decision tree.
What is the expected value at node 4? Round your answer to the nearest whole number. Do not include the dollar sign “$” in your answer.
Question 31
A normal distribution has a mean of 500 and a standard deviation of 50. A manager wants to simulate one value from this distribution, and has drawn the number 1.4 randomly. What is the simulated value?
Question 32
Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.
Question 33
Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.
Question 34
The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product
Month Actual Demand
March 20
April 25
May 40
June 35
July 30
August 45
If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.
Question 35
The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :
Year Sales Forecast
2003 7 9
2004 12 10
2005 14 15
2006 20 22
2007 16 18
2008 25 21
Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.
Question 36
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.
Question 37
Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.
What is the coefficient of determination? Note: please report your answer with 2 places after the decimal point.
Question 38
Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.
Year Demand Forecast
2001 16 18
2002 20 19
2003 18 24
Question 39
The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.
Month Actual Demand
March 20
April 25
May 40
June 35
July 30
August 45
Use exponential smoothing with α = .2 and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.
Question 40
The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.
Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.
Question 1
Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
Question 2
An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.
Question 3
A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.
Question 4
A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.
Question 5
A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.
Question 6
Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables.
Question 7
Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
Question 8
The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.
A company markets educational software products, and is ready to place three new products on the market. Past experience has shown that for this particular software, the chance of "success" is 80%. Assume that the probability of success is independent for each product. What is the probability that exactly 1 of the 3 products is successful?
Question 10
Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?
Question 11
The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.
Question 12
Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.
Question 13
Consider the following frequency of demand:
If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be
Question 14
A seed value is a(n)
Question 15
In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by __________ a probability distribution.
Question 16
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.
Question 17
__________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.
Question 18
__________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.
Question 19
__________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
Question 20
__________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.
Question 21
Consider the following graph of sales.
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
Question 22
Consider the following graph of sales.
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
Question 23
__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.
Question 24
__________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.
Question 25
A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
Question 26
An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week. The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below. The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints.
xi 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
p(xi) .10 .15 .18 .20 .20 .10 .07
What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer to two places after the decimal.
Question 27
A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
Question 28
The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.
Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal.
Question 29
The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).
If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information? Note: Please express your answer as a whole number in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000). Round to the nearest whole number, if necessary.
Question 30
An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D. The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below.
Economic Condition
Poor Average Good Excellent
Investment (S1) (S2) (S3) (S4)
A 50 75 20 30
B 80 15 40 50
C -100 300 -50 10
D 25 25 25 25
If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?
Question 31
Given the following random number ranges and the following random number sequence: 62, 13, 25, 40, 86, 93, determine the average demand for the following distribution of demand.
Demand Random
Number Ranges
5 00-14
6 15-44
7 45-69
8 70-84
9 85-99
Question 32
Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.
What is the coefficient of determination? Note: please report your answer with 2 places after the decimal point.
Question 33
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.
Answer
Selected Answer: 246.67
• Question 34
The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.
Month Actual Demand
March 20
April 25
May 40
June 35
July 30
August 45
Use exponential smoothing with α = .2 and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.
Question 35
This is the data from the last 4 weeks:
Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.
Question 36
Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.
Question 37
The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.
Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.
Question 38
The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product
Month Actual Demand
March 20
April 25
May 40
June 35
July 30
August 45
If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.
Question 39
Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.
Year Demand Forecast
2001 16 18
2002 20 19
2003 18 24
Question 40
The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :
Year Sales Forecast
2003 7 9
2004 12 10
2005 14 15
2006 20 22
2007 16 18
2008 25 21
Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.
Question 1
Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
Question 2
An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.
Question 3
A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.
Question 4
A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.
Question 5
Simulation results will always equal analytical results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted.
Question 6
A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.
Question 7
The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.
Question 8
Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.
Question 9
Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?
Question 10
In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.
Question 11
The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.
Question 12
Consider the following frequency of demand:
If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be
Question 13
Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.
Question 14
Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine
Question 15
A seed value is a(n)
Question 16
__________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.
Question 17
__________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.
Question 18
Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.
Question 19
__________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.
Question 20
Consider the following graph of sales.
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
Question 21
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.
Question 22
rob
14, and 15)estion worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows:
Yield, bushels per acre Probability
350 .10
400 .18
450 .50
500 .22
The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80.
What is the expected yield of the crop?
Question 23
__________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
Question 24
__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.
Question 25
A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
Question 26
A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
Question 27
The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.
Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal.
Question 28
An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities. Each person is limited to one entry.
The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________.
Question 29
An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D. The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below.
Economic Condition
Poor Average Good Excellent
Investment (S1) (S2) (S3) (S4)
A 50 75 20 30
B 80 15 40 50
C -100 300 -50 10
D 25 25 25 25
If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?
Question 30
The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.
If he is conservative, how many new workers will he hire?
Question 31
Consider the following distribution and random numbers:
If a simulation begins with the first random number, what would the first simulation value would be __________.
Question 32
This is the data from the last 4 weeks:
Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.
Question 33
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.
Question 34
Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.
Year Demand Forecast
2001 16 18
2002 20 19
2003 18 24
Question 35
Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.
Year Sales
2001 2
2002 4
2003 10
2004 8
2005 14
2006 18
2007 17
2008 20
Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.
Question 36
Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.
What is the coefficient of determination? Use two significant places after the decimal.
Question 37
The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product
Month Actual Demand
March 20
April 25
May 40
June 35
July 30
August 45
If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.
Question 38
The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.
Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.
Question 39
Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.
Question 40
The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :
Year Sales Forecast
2003 7 9
2004 12 10
2005 14 15
2006 20 22
2007 16 18
2008 25 21
Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.
Question 1
Probability trees are used only to compute conditional probabilities.
Question 2
Seventy two percent of all observations fall within 1 standard deviation of the mean if the data is normally distributed.
Question 3
If two events are not mutually exclusive, then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
Question 4
The Hurwicz criterion is a compromise between the minimax and minimin criteria.
Question 5
Using the minimax regret criterion, we first construct a table of regrets. Subsequently, for each possible decision, we look across the states of nature and make a note of the maximum regret possible for that decision. We then pick the decision with the largest maximum regret.
Question 6
The minimin criterion is optimistic.
Question 7
The equal likelihood criterion assigns a probability of 0.5 to each state of nature, regardless of how many states of nature there are.
Question 8
The metropolitan airport commission is considering the establishment of limitations on noise pollution around a local airport. At the present time, the noise level per jet takeoff in one neighborhood near the airport is approximately normally distributed with a mean of 100 decibels and a standard deviation of 3 decibels. What is the probability that a randomly selected jet will generate a noise level of more than 105 decibels?
Question 9
Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. Find the probability that a randomly selected college student will take between 2 and 6 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot.
Question 10
The chi-square test is a statistical test to see if an observed data fit a _________.
Question 11
A group of friends are planning a recreational outing and have constructed the following payoff table to help them decide which activity to engage in. Assume that the payoffs represent their level of enjoyment for each activity under the various weather conditions.
Weather
Cold Warm Rainy
S1 S2 S3
Bike: A1 10 8 6
Hike: A2 14 15 2
Fish: A3 7 8 9
If the group chooses to minimize their maximum regret, what activity will they choose?
Question 12
A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow.
The maximax strategy is:
Question 13
The maximin criterion results in the
Question 14
A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow.
If the probability of brisk business is .40 and for slow business is .60, the expected value of perfect information is:
Question 15
A life insurance company wants to update its actuarial tables. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 71 years and a standard deviation of 3.5 years. What proportion of the plan participants are expected to see their 75th birthday? Note: Write your answers with two places after the decimal, rounding off as appropriate.
Question 16
A brand of television has a lifetime that is normally distributed with a mean of 7 years and a standard deviation of 2.5 years. What is the probability that a randomly chosen TV will last more than 8 years? Note: Write your answers with two places after the decimal, rounding off as appropriate.
Question 17
A manager has developed a payoff table that indicates the profits associated with a set of alternatives under 2 possible states of nature.
Alt S1 S2
1 10 2
2 -2 8
3 8 5
Compute the expected value of perfect information assuming that the probability of S2 is equal to 0.4.
Question 18
A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow.
If the probability of brisk business is .40, what is the numerical maximum expected value?
Question 19
The quality control manager for ENTA Inc. must decide whether to accept (a1), further analyze (a2) or reject (a3) a lot of incoming material. Assume the following payoff table is available. Historical data indicates that there is 30% chance that the lot is poor quality (s1), 50 % chance that the lot is fair quality (s2) and 20% chance that the lot is good quality (s3).
What is the numerical value of the maximin?
Question 20
The quality control manager for ENTA Inc. must decide whether to accept (a1), further analyze (a2) or reject (a3) a lot of incoming material. Assume the following payoff table is available. Historical data indicates that there is 30% chance that the lot is poor quality (s1), 50 % chance that the lot is fair quality (s2) and 20% chance that the lot is good quality (s3).
What is the numerical value of the minimax regret?
Question 1
If two events are not mutually exclusive, then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
Question 2
Probability trees are used only to compute conditional probabilities.
Question 3
Seventy two percent of all observations fall within 1 standard deviation of the mean if the data is normally distributed.
Question 4
The maximin approach involves choosing the alternative with the highest or lowest payoff.
Question 5
Using the minimax regret criterion, we first construct a table of regrets. Subsequently, for each possible decision, we look across the states of nature and make a note of the maximum regret possible for that decision. We then pick the decision with the largest maximum regret.
Question 6
The Hurwicz criterion is a compromise between the minimax and minimin criteria.
Question 7
The equal likelihood criterion assigns a probability of 0.5 to each state of nature, regardless of how many states of nature there are.
Question 8
The metropolitan airport commission is considering the establishment of limitations on noise pollution around a local airport. At the present time, the noise level per jet takeoff in one neighborhood near the airport is approximately normally distributed with a mean of 100 decibels and a standard deviation of 3 decibels. What is the probability that a randomly selected jet will generate a noise level of more than 105 decibels?
Question 9
Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. Find the probability that a randomly selected college student will take between 2 and 6 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot.
Question 10
A professor would like to utilize the normal distribution to assign grades such that 5% of students receive A's. If the exam average is 62 with a standard deviation of 13, what grade should be the cutoff for an A? (Round your answer.)
Question 11
A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow.
The maximax strategy is:
Question 12
The maximin criterion results in the
Question 13
A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow.
If the probability of brisk business is .40 and for slow business is .60, the expected value of perfect information is:
Question 14
A group of friends are planning a recreational outing and have constructed the following payoff table to help them decide which activity to engage in. Assume that the payoffs represent their level of enjoyment for each activity under the various weather conditions.
Weather
Cold Warm Rainy
S1 S2 S3
Bike: A1 10 8 6
Hike: A2 14 15 2
Fish: A3 7 8 9
What is the conservative decision for this situation?
Question 15
A brand of television has a lifetime that is normally distributed with a mean of 7 years and a standard deviation of 2.5 years. What is the probability that a randomly chosen TV will last more than 8 years? Note: Write your answers with two places after the decimal, rounding off as appropriate.
Question 16
A life insurance company wants to update its actuarial tables. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 71 years and a standard deviation of 3.5 years. What proportion of the plan participants are expected to see their 75th birthday? Note: Write your answers with two places after the decimal, rounding off as appropriate.
Question 17
A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow.
If the probability of brisk business is .40, what is the numerical maximum expected value?
Question 18
A group of friends are planning a recreational outing and have constructed the following payoff table to help them decide which activity to engage in. Assume that the payoffs represent their level of enjoyment for each activity under the various weather conditions.
Weather
Cold Warm Rainy
S1 S2 S3
Bike: A1 10 8 6
Hike: A2 14 15 2
Fish: A3 7 8 9
If the probabilities of cold weather (S1), warm weather (S2), and rainy weather (S3) are 0.2, 0.4, and 0.4, respectively what is the EVPI for this situation?
Question 19
A manager has developed a payoff table that indicates the profits associated with a set of alternatives under 2 possible states of nature.
Alt S1 S2
1 10 2
2 -2 8
3 8 5
What is the highest expected value? Assume that the probability of S2 is equal to 0.4.
Question 20
The quality control manager for ENTA Inc. must decide whether to accept (a1), further analyze (a2) or reject (a3) a lot of incoming material. Assume the following payoff table is available. Historical data indicates that there is 30% chance that the lot is poor quality (s1), 50 % chance that the lot is fair quality (s2) and 20% chance that the lot is good quality (s3).
What is the numerical value of the maximin?
Question 1
Seventy two percent of all observations fall within 1 standard deviation of the mean if the data is normally distributed.
Question 2
Probability trees are used only to compute conditional probabilities.
Question 3
If two events are not mutually exclusive, then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
Question 4
The Hurwicz criterion is a compromise between the maximax and maximin criteria.
Question 5
The maximin approach involves choosing the alternative with the highest or lowest payoff.
Question 6
The Hurwicz criterion is a compromise between the minimax and minimin criteria.
Question 7
The equal likelihood criterion assigns a probability of 0.5 to each state of nature, regardless of how many states of nature there are.
Question 8
The chi-square test is a statistical test to see if an observed data fit a _________.
Question 9
A professor would like to utilize the normal distribution to assign grades such that 5% of students receive A's. If the exam average is 62 with a standard deviation of 13, what grade should be the cutoff for an A? (Round your answer.)
Question 10
The metropolitan airport commission is considering the establishment of limitations on noise pollution around a local airport. At the present time, the noise level per jet takeoff in one neighborhood near the airport is approximately normally distributed with a mean of 100 decibels and a standard deviation of 3 decibels. What is the probability that a randomly selected jet will generate a noise level of more than 105 decibels?
Question 11
A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow.
If the probability of brisk business is .40 and for slow business is .60, the expected value of perfect information is:
Question 12
A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow.
The maximin strategy is:
Question 13
Determining the worst payoff for each alternative and choosing the alternative with the best worst is called
Question 14
A group of friends are planning a recreational outing and have constructed the following payoff table to help them decide which activity to engage in. Assume that the payoffs represent their level of enjoyment for each activity under the various weather conditions.
Weather
Cold Warm Rainy
S1 S2 S3
Bike: A1 10 8 6
Hike: A2 14 15 2
Fish: A3 7 8 9
What is the conservative decision for this situation?
Question 15
A life insurance company wants to update its actuarial tables. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 71 years and a standard deviation of 3.5 years. What proportion of the plan participants are expected to see their 75th birthday? Note: Write your answers with two places after the decimal, rounding off as appropriate.
Question 16
A brand of television has a lifetime that is normally distributed with a mean of 7 years and a standard deviation of 2.5 years. What is the probability that a randomly chosen TV will last more than 8 years? Note: Write your answers with two places after the decimal, rounding off as appropriate.
Question 17
The quality control manager for ENTA Inc. must decide whether to accept (a1), further analyze (a2) or reject (a3) a lot of incoming material. Assume the following payoff table is available. Historical data indicates that there is 30% chance that the lot is poor quality (s1), 50 % chance that the lot is fair quality (s2) and 20% chance that the lot is good quality (s3).
What is the numerical value of the maximin?
Question 18
Consider the following decision tree.
What is the expected value for the best decision? Round your answer to the nearest whole number.
Question 19
A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow.
If the probability of brisk business is .40, what is the numerical maximum expected value?
Question 20
A manager has developed a payoff table that indicates the profits associated with a set of alternatives under 2 possible states of nature.
Alt S1 S2
1 10 2
2 -2 8
3 8 5
What is the highest expected value? Assume that the probability of S2 is equal to 0.4.
Question 1
Probability trees are used only to compute conditional probabilities.
Question 2
If two events are not mutually exclusive, then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
Question 3
Seventy two percent of all observations fall within 1 standard deviation of the mean if the data is normally distributed.
Question 4
The Hurwicz criterion is a compromise between the maximax and maximin criteria.
Question 5
The maximin approach involves choosing the alternative with the highest or lowest payoff.
Question 6
The minimin criterion is optimistic.
Question 7
Both maximin and minimin criteria are optimistic.
Question 8
A professor would like to utilize the normal distribution to assign grades such that 5% of students receive A's. If the exam average is 62 with a standard deviation of 13, what grade should be the cutoff for an A? (Round your answer.)
Question 9
The metropolitan airport commission is considering the establishment of limitations on noise pollution around a local airport. At the present time, the noise level per jet takeoff in one neighborhood near the airport is approximately normally distributed with a mean of 100 decibels and a standard deviation of 3 decibels. What is the probability that a randomly selected jet will generate a noise level of more than 105 decibels?
Question 10
The chi‐square test is a statistical test to see if an observed data fit a _________.
Question 11
The maximin criterion results in the
Question 12
A group of friends are planning a recreational outing and have constructed the following payoff table to help them decide which activity to engage in. Assume that the payoffs represent their level of enjoyment for each activity under the various weather conditions.
Weather
Cold Warm Rainy
S1 S2 S3
Bike: A1 10 8 6
Hike: A2 14 15 2
Fish: A3 7 8 9
What is the conservative decision for this situation?
Question 13
A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow.
The maximax strategy is:
Question 14
A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow.
The maximin strategy is:
Question 15
A brand of television has a lifetime that is normally distributed with a mean of 7 years and a standard deviation of 2.5 years. What is the probability that a randomly chosen TV will last more than 8 years? Note: Write your answers with two places after the decimal, rounding off as appropriate.
Question 16
A life insurance company wants to update its actuarial tables. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a
mean of 71 years and a standard deviation of 3.5 years. What proportion of the plan participants are expected to see their 75th birthday? Note: Write your answers with two places after the decimal, rounding off as appropriate.
Question 17
A group of friends are planning a recreational outing and have constructed the following payoff table to help them decide which activity to engage in. Assume that the payoffs represent their level of enjoyment for each activity under the various weather conditions.
Weather
Cold Warm Rainy
S1 S2 S3
Bike: A1 10 8 6
Hike: A2 14 15 2
Fish: A3 7 8 9
If the probabilities of cold weather (S1), warm weather (S2), and rainy weather (S3) are 0.2, 0.4, and 0.4, respectively what is the EVPI for this situation?
Question 18
A manager has developed a payoff table that indicates the profits associated with a set of alternatives under 2 possible states of nature.
Alt S1 S2
1 10 2
2 ‐2 8
3 8 5
What is the highest expected value? Assume that the probability of S2 is equal to 0.4
Evaluation Method Correct Answer Case Sensitivity
Exact Match 6.8
Question 19
Consider the following decision tree.
What is the expected value for the best decision? Round your answer to the nearest whole number.
Question 20
The quality control manager for ENTA Inc. must decide whether to accept (a1), further analyze (a2) or reject (a3) a lot of incoming material. Assume the following payoff table is available. Historical data indicates that there is 30% chance that the lot is poor quality (s1), 50 % chance that the lot is fair quality (s2) and 20% chance that the lot is good quality (s3).
What is the numerical value of the minimax regret?
Question 1
Seventy two percent of all observations fall within 1 standard deviation of the mean if the data is normally distributed.
Question 2
Probability trees are used only to compute conditional probabilities.
Question 3
If two events are not mutually exclusive, then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
Question 4
Using the minimax regret criterion, we first construct a table of regrets. Subsequently, for each possible decision, we look across the states of nature and make a note of the maximum regret possible for that decision. We then pick the decision with the largest maximum regret.
Question 5
Both maximin and minimin criteria are optimistic.
Question 6
The Hurwicz criterion is a compromise between the maximax and maximin criteria.
Question 7
The maximin approach involves choosing the alternative with the highest or lowest payoff.
Question 8
Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. Find the probability that a randomly selected college student will take between 2 and 6 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot.
Question 9
The chi-square test is a statistical test to see if an observed data fit a _________.
Question 10
A professor would like to utilize the normal distribution to assign grades such that 5% of students receive A's. If the exam average is 62 with a standard deviation of 13, what grade should be the cutoff for an A? (Round your answer.)
Question 11
A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow.
The maximax strategy is:
Question 12
A group of friends are planning a recreational outing and have constructed the following payoff table to help them decide which activity to engage in. Assume that the payoffs represent their level of enjoyment for each activity under the various weather conditions.
Weather
Cold Warm Rainy
S1 S2 S3
Bike: A1 10 8 6
Hike: A2 14 15 2
Fish: A3 7 8 9
If the group chooses to minimize their maximum regret, what activity will they choose?
Answer
Selected Answer:
A3
Correct Answer:
Any of the above
Question 13
A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow.
The maximin strategy is:
Question 14
Determining the worst payoff for each alternative and choosing the alternative with the best worst is called
Question 15
A life insurance company wants to update its actuarial tables. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 71 years and a standard deviation of 3.5 years. What proportion of the plan participants are expected to see their 75th birthday? Note: Write your answers with two places after the decimal, rounding off as appropriate.
Question 16
A brand of television has a lifetime that is normally distributed with a mean of 7 years and a standard deviation of 2.5 years. What is the probability that a randomly chosen TV will last more than 8 years? Note: Write your answers with two places after the decimal, rounding off as appropriate.
Question 17
The quality control manager for ENTA Inc. must decide whether to accept (a1), further analyze (a2) or reject (a3) a lot of incoming material. Assume the following payoff table is available. Historical data indicates that there is 30% chance that the lot is poor quality (s1), 50 % chance that the lot is fair quality (s2) and 20% chance that the lot is good quality (s3).
What is the numerical value of the maximin?
Evaluation Method Correct Answer Case Sensitivity
Exact Match 40
Question 18
The quality control manager for ENTA Inc. must decide whether to accept (a1), further analyze (a2) or reject (a3) a lot of incoming material. Assume the following payoff table is available. Historical data indicates that there is 30% chance that the lot is poor quality (s1), 50 % chance that the lot is fair quality (s2) and 20% chance that the lot is good quality (s3).
What is the numerical value of the minimax regret?
Question 19
A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow.
If the probability of brisk business is .40, what is the numerical maximum expected value?
Question 20
A manager has developed a payoff table that indicates the profits associated with a set of alternatives under 2 possible states of nature.
Alt S1 S2
1 10 2
2 -2 8
3 8 5
Compute the expected value of perfect information assuming that the probability of S2 is equal to 0.4.
Question 1
Probability trees are used only to compute conditional probabilities.
Question 2
If two events are not mutually exclusive, then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
Question 3
Seventy two percent of all observations fall within 1 standard deviation of the mean if the data is normally distributed.
Question 4
The equal likelihood criterion assigns a probability of 0.5 to each state of nature, regardless of how many states of nature there are.
Question 5
The maximin approach involves choosing the alternative with the highest or lowest payoff.
Question 6
Using the minimax regret criterion, we first construct a table of regrets. Subsequently, for each possible decision, we look across the states of nature and make a note of the maximum regret possible for that decision. We then pick the decision with the largest maximum regret.
Question 7
The Hurwicz criterion is a compromise between the minimax and minimin criteria.
Question 1
Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
Question 2
A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.
Question 3
An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.
Question 4
A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.
Question 5
Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables.
Question 6
Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.
Question 7
Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.
Question 8
The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.
Question 9
Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?
Question 10
In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.
Question 11
The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.
Question 12
A seed value is a(n)
Question 13
Consider the following frequency of demand:
If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be
Question 14
Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.
Question 15
Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine
Question 16
__________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.
Question 17
__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.
Question 18
In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.
Question 19
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.
Question 20
Consider the following graph of sales.
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
Question 21
Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.
Question 22
Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?
Question 23
__________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.
Question 24
Consider the following demand and forecast.
Period Demand Forecast
1 7 10
2 12 15
3 18 20
4 22
If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?
Question 25
The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.
Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal.
Question 26
An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week. The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below. The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints.
xi 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
p(xi) .10 .15 .18 .20 .20 .10 .07
What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer to two places after the decimal.
Question 27
A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
Question 28
A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
Question 29
The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.
If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information? Round your answer to the nearest dollar.
Question 30
An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D. The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below.
Economic Condition
Poor Average Good Excellent
Investment (S1) (S2) (S3) (S4)
A 50 75 20 30
B 80 15 40 50
C -100 300 -50 10
D 25 25 25 25
If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?
Question 31
A normal distribution has a mean of 500 and a standard deviation of 50. A manager wants to simulate one value from this distribution, and has drawn the number 1.4 randomly. What is the simulated value?
Question 32
Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.
What is the coefficient of determination? Use two significant places after the decimal.
Question 33
Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.
Year Demand Forecast
2001 16 18
2002 20 19
2003 18 24
Question 34
Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.
Question 35
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.
Question 36
Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.
Year Sales
2001 2
2002 4
2003 10
2004 8
2005 14
2006 18
2007 17
2008 20
Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.
Question 37
The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :
Year Sales Forecast
2003 7 9
2004 12 10
2005 14 15
2006 20 22
2007 16 18
2008 25 21
Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.
Question 38
The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.
Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.
Question 39
Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.
Question 40
The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.
Month Actual Demand
March 20
April 25
May 40
June 35
July 30
August 45
Use exponential smoothing with α = .2 and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.
Question 1
Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
Question 2
A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.
Question 3
A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.
Question 4
A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.
Question 5
Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.
Question 6
Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables.
Question 7
The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.
Question 8
Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.
Question 9
A company markets educational software products, and is ready to place three new products on the market. Past experience has shown that for this particular software, the chance of "success" is 80%. Assume that the probability of success is independent for each product. What is the probability that exactly 1 of the 3 products is successful?
Question 10
__________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.
Question 11
The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.
Question 12
Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table below. The average number of breakdowns from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.
No. of breakdowns per week Probability Cumulative probability
0 .10 .10
1 .25 .35
2 .36 .71
3 .22 .93
4 .07 1.00
What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns?
Question 13
In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by __________ a probability distribution.
Question 14
Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine
Question 15
A seed value is a(n)
Question 16
__________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.
Question 17
__________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
Question 18
__________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.
Question 19
Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.
Question 20
Consider the following demand and forecast.
Period Demand Forecast
1 7 10
2 12 15
3 18 20
4 22
If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?
Question 21
Consider the following graph of sales.
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
Question 22
Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?
Question 23
__________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.
Question 24
__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.
Question 25
An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week. The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below. The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints.
xi 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
p(xi) .10 .15 .18 .20 .20 .10 .07
What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer to two places after the decimal.
Question 26
A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
Question 27
An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities. Each person is limited to one entry.
The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________.
Question 28
A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
Question 29
The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).
If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information? Note: Please express your answer as a whole number in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000). Round to the nearest whole number, if necessary.
Question 30
Consider the following decision tree.
What is the expected value at node 4? Round your answer to the nearest whole number. Do not include the dollar sign “$” in your answer.
Question 31
A normal distribution has a mean of 500 and a standard deviation of 50. A manager wants to simulate one value from this distribution, and has drawn the number 1.4 randomly. What is the simulated value?
Question 32
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.
Question 33
The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.
Month Actual Demand
March 20
April 25
May 40
June 35
July 30
August 45
Use exponential smoothing with α = .2 and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.
Answer
Selected Answer: 31.6
Correct Answer:
Evaluation Method Correct Answer Case Sensitivity
Exact Match 31.6
Question 34
Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.
Question 35
Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.
Question 36
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.
Question 37
The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product
Month Actual Demand
March 20
April 25
May 40
June 35
July 30
August 45
If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.
Question 38
Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.
Year Sales
2001 2
2002 4
2003 10
2004 8
2005 14
2006 18
2007 17
2008 20
Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.
Question 39
This is the data from the last 4 weeks:
Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.
Question 40
Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.
What is the coefficient of determination? Note: please report your answer with 2 places after the decimal point.
Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters
2. A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval
3. An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.
4. A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches
5. Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model
6. A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.
7. The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future
8. Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns
9. Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?
10. A company markets educational software products, and is ready to place three new products on the market. Past experience has shown that for this particular software, the chance of "success" is 80%. Assume that the probability of success is independent for each product. What is the probability that exactly 1 of the 3 products is successful
11. The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision
12. In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by __________ a probability distribution
13. Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.
14. Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers
15. Consider the following frequency of demand:
If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be
16. Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
17. _______ is a linear regression model relating demand to time
18. _______ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process
19. Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable
20. ____________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.
21. ________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behaviour
22. __________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.
23. __________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.
24. Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the mostslowly to sudden changes in forecast errors
25. A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal
26. An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and
probabilities. Each person is limited to one entry.
The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is _______
27. A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the decimal
28. A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
29. The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to
hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary
with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The following
payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).
If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and
50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information? Note:
Please express your answer as a whole number in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 =
$50,000). Round to the nearest whole number, if necessary.
30. Consider the following decision tree.
What is the expected value at node 4? Round your answer to the nearest whole
number. Do not include the dollar sign “$” in your answer
31. Consider the following probability distribution:
Demand | Probability |
0 | 0.15 |
1 | 0.30 |
2 | 0.25 |
3 | 0.15 |
4 | 0.15 |
Partition 100 numbers from 0 to 99 according to the probability of each demand value, starting with 0. A number from the 100 numbers is going to be
selected. What is the corresponding demand value if 62 is selected?
32. Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold
at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the
decimal
33. Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold
at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the
decimal.
34. Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.
Year | Sales |
2001 | 2 |
2002 | 4 |
2003 | 10 |
2004 | 8 |
2005 | 14 |
2006 | 18 |
2007 | 17 |
2008 | 20 |
Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the
decimal.
35. This is the data from the last 4 weeks:
Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.
36. The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.
Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are
W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.
37. Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.
38. Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.
39. Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.
Year
Demand Forecast
2001 | 16 | 18 |
2002 | 20 | 19 |
2003 | 18 | 24 |
40. The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.
Month | Actual Demand |
March | 20 |
April | 25 |
May | 40 |
June | 35 |
July | 30 |
August | 45 |
Use exponential smoothing with α = .2 and the smoothed forecast for July
is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.
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