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    Posting Date : 2015/07/30 14:40

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    MAT 540 Week 5 Midterm Exam Latest 2014

    Question 1

    Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.                            

    Question 2

    An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.                                   

    Question 3

    A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.

    Question 4

     

    A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.

     

    Question 5

     

    Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables.

    Question 6

     

    Simulation results will always equal analytical results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted.

    Question 7

     

    Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

    Question 8

     

    The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.

    Question 9

    In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.

    Question 10

    Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot.  Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?

    Question 11

    The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.

     

    Question 12

     

    In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by __________ a probability distribution.

    Question 13

     

    Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine

     

    Question 14

     

    Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.

     

    Question 15

     

    Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table below.  The average number of breakdowns from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.

     

    No. of breakdowns per week  Probability       Cumulative probability

    0          .10       .10

    1          .25       .35

    2          .36       .71

    3          .22       .93

    4          .07       1.00

    What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns?

    Question 16

     __________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.

    Question 17

    __________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.

    Question 18

    Consider the following graph of sales.

     Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

    Question 19

    Consider the following demand and forecast.

     

    Period  Demand          Forecast

    1          7          10

    2          12        15

    3          18        20

    4          22       

    If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?

    Question 20

    __________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.

     

    Question 21

    __________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

    Question 22

     

    Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.

     

                                       

    Question 23

               

                 rob

     14, and 15)estion worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows: 

     

    Yield, bushels per acre            Probability

    350      .10

    400      .18

    450      .50

    500      .22

     

     

    The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80.

     

    What is the expected yield of the crop?

               

    Question 24

     

    Consider the following graph of sales.

     

     

    Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

     

    Question 25

     

    The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.

                

    Compute the mean drying time.  Use two places after the decimal.

     

    Question 26

    A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

    Case Sensitivity

      Exact Match  0.9772

      Exact Match  0.9771

      Exact Match  0.9773

      Exact Match  .9772  

      Exact Match  .9771  

      Exact Match  .9773  

    Question 27

    A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times?  Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

    Question 28

     

    A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75?  Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

     

    Evaluation Method Case Sensitivity

      Exact Match  0.0401

      Exact Match  0.0400

      Exact Match  0.0402

      Exact Match  .0401  

      Exact Match  .0400  

      Exact Match  .0402  

    Question 29

    An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D.  The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below.

     

                                                Economic Condition

                            Poor           Average       Good        Excellent

        Investment      (S1)              (S2)           (S3)          (S4)

               A               50                  75              20              30

               B               80                  15              40              50

               C           -100                 300             -50              10     

               D               25                  25              25              25 

     

    If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?

     

    Question 30

     

    The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000). 

     

                            

     

    If he uses the maximin criterion, how many new workers will he hire?

     

    Question 31

     

    Consider the following probability distribution:

     

    Demand          Probability

    0          0.15

    1          0.30

    2          0.25

    3          0.15

    4          0.15

    Partition 100 numbers from 0 to 99 according to the probability of each demand value, starting with 0. A number from the 100 numbers is going to be selected. What is the corresponding demand value if 62 is selected?

     

    Question 32

     

    Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.

               

    Question 33

    The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :

     

    Year    Sales    Forecast

    2003    7          9

    2004    12        10

    2005    14        15

    2006    20        22

    2007    16        18

    2008    25        21

     

     

    Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

     

    Question 34

     

    Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.

     

    What is the coefficient of determination? Note:  please report your answer with 2 places after the decimal point.

               

    Question 35

     

    Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.

     

                            Year    Demand           Forecast

    2001    16        18

    2002    20        19

    2003    18        24

     

    Question 36

     

               

    The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product

     

    Month Actual Demand

    March  20

    April    25

    May     40

    June     35

    July      30

    August            45

     

     

     

    If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

     

    Question 37

     

    Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

                

     

    Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.

    Question 38

     

    Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.

    Answer                                   

                Selected Answer:           91

    Correct Answer:         

    Evaluation Method     Correct Answer           Case Sensitivity

      Exact Match  91       

     

                                       

    Question 39

     

               

    This is the data from the last 4 weeks:

     

                

     

    Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.

    Question 40

    Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.

     

    Year    Sales

    2001    2

    2002    4

    2003    10

    2004    8

    2005    14

    2006    18

    2007    17

    2008    20

     

     

     

    Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.

     

    Question 1

     

    Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.

     

    Question 2

     

    A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.

     

    Question 3

     

    A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.

     

    Question 4

     

    A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.

     

    Question 5

     

    Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.

     

    Question 6

     

    A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.

     

    Question 7

     

    The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.

    Question 8

    Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.

     

     

    Question 9

    A company markets educational software products, and is ready to place three new products on the market. Past experience has shown that for this particular software, the chance of "success" is 80%. Assume that the probability of success is independent for each product. What is the probability that exactly 1 of the 3 products is successful?

     

    Question 10

    Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot.  Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?

    Question 11

     

    The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.

    Question 12

    Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine

     

    Question 13

    A seed value is a(n)

     

    Question 14

    In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by __________ a probability distribution.

    Question 15

    Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.

    Question 16

    Consider the following demand and forecast.

     

    Period  Demand          Forecast

    1          7          10

    2          12        15

    3          18        20

    4          22       

     

     

    If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?

    Question 17

     rob

     14, and 15)estion worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows: 

     

    Yield, bushels per acre            Probability

    350      .10

    400      .18

    450      .50

    500      .22

     

     

    The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80.

     

    What is the expected yield of the crop?

    Question 18

     

    __________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

    Question 19

                __________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.

    Question 20

    Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

                

    If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.

     

    Question 21

    Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?

     

    Question 22

     

    In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.

    Question 23

    __________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.

     

    Question 24

    __________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.

     

    Question 25

    A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

                           

    Question 26

     

    A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times?  Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

     

    Question 27

    The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.

                

    Compute the mean drying time.  Use two places after the decimal.

    Question 28

    A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75?  Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

    Question 29

    The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000). 

    If he uses the maximin criterion, how many new workers will he hire?

    Question 30

    Consider the following decision tree.

    What is the expected value at node 4? Round your answer to the nearest whole number. Do not include the dollar sign “$” in your answer.

    Question 31

    A normal distribution has a mean of 500 and a standard deviation of 50. A manager wants to simulate one value from this distribution, and has drawn the number 1.4 randomly.  What is the simulated value?

    Question 32

    Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.

    Question 33

    Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.

    Question 34

    The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product

     

    Month Actual Demand

    March  20

    April    25

    May     40

    June     35

    July      30

    August            45

    If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

    Question 35

    The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :

     

    Year    Sales    Forecast

    2003    7          9

    2004    12        10

    2005    14        15

    2006    20        22

    2007    16        18

    2008    25        21

    Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

    Question 36

    Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

                

     

    Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.

    Question 37

    Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.

     

    What is the coefficient of determination? Note:  please report your answer with 2 places after the decimal point.

    Question 38

    Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.

     

                            Year    Demand           Forecast

    2001    16        18

    2002    20        19

    2003    18        24

               

    Question 39

    The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.

     

    Month Actual Demand

    March  20

    April    25

    May     40

    June     35

    July      30

    August            45

     

     

    Use exponential smoothing with α = .2  and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.

    Question 40

    The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.

    Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.

    Question 1

    Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.

    Question 2

    An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.

    Question 3

    A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.

    Question 4

    A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.

    Question 5

    A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.

    Question 6

     

    Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables.

                           

    Question 7

    Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

    Question 8

    The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.

     

    A company markets educational software products, and is ready to place three new products on the market. Past experience has shown that for this particular software, the chance of "success" is 80%. Assume that the probability of success is independent for each product. What is the probability that exactly 1 of the 3 products is successful?

     

    Question 10

     

    Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot.  Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?

               

    Question 11

     

    The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.

               

    Question 12

     

    Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.

    Question 13

    Consider the following frequency of demand:

           

     

    If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be

    Question 14

    A seed value is a(n)

    Question 15

    In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by __________ a probability distribution.

    Question 16

    Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

     

     If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.

    Question 17

    __________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.

     

    Question 18

     

    __________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.

    Question 19

                __________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

    Question 20

     

                __________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.

    Question 21

    Consider the following graph of sales.

     

    Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

    Question 22

     

    Consider the following graph of sales.

     

    Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

    Question 23

    __________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.

    Question 24

    __________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.

    Question 25

     

    A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times?  Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

    Question 26

    An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week.  The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below.  The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints.

     

    xi         0          1          2          3          4          5          6

    p(xi)     .10       .15       .18       .20       .20       .10       .07

     

     

    What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer to two places after the decimal.

    Question 27

     

    A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75?  Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

    Question 28

    The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.

                

    Compute the mean drying time.  Use two places after the decimal.

    Question 29

     

    The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.  The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000). 

                           

     

    If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information?  Note:  Please express your answer as a whole number in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).  Round to the nearest whole number, if necessary.

    Question 30

    An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D.  The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below.

     

                                                Economic Condition

                            Poor           Average       Good        Excellent

        Investment      (S1)              (S2)           (S3)          (S4)

               A               50                  75              20              30

               B               80                  15              40              50

               C           -100                 300             -50              10     

               D               25                  25              25              25 

     

    If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?

    Question 31

    Given the following random number ranges and the following random number sequence: 62, 13, 25, 40,  86, 93, determine the average demand for the following distribution of demand.

     

    Demand          Random

    Number Ranges

    5          00-14

    6          15-44

    7          45-69

    8          70-84

    9          85-99

    Question 32

    Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.

     

    What is the coefficient of determination? Note:  please report your answer with 2 places after the decimal point.

    Question 33

    Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

     

    Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.

    Answer                                   

                Selected Answer:           246.67

                                       

    •           Question 34

     

               

                The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.

     

    Month Actual Demand

    March  20

    April    25

    May     40

    June     35

    July      30

    August            45

     

     

    Use exponential smoothing with α = .2  and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.

    Question 35

    This is the data from the last 4 weeks:

     

    Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.

     

    Question 36

     

    Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.

    Question 37

    The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.

     

    Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.

    Question 38

    The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product

     

    Month Actual Demand

    March  20

    April    25

    May     40

    June     35

    July      30

    August            45

     

     

     

    If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

    Question 39

     

    Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.

     

                            Year    Demand           Forecast

    2001    16        18

    2002    20        19

    2003    18        24

    Question 40

    The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :

     

    Year    Sales    Forecast

    2003    7          9

    2004    12        10

    2005    14        15

    2006    20        22

    2007    16        18

    2008    25        21

     

     

    Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

    Question 1

    Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.

     

    Question 2

    An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.

    Question 3

    A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.

     Question 4

    A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.

    Question 5

    Simulation results will always equal analytical results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted.

    Question 6

    A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.

     

    Question 7

    The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.

     Question 8

    Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.

     

    Question 9

    Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot.  Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?

     

    Question 10

    In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.

    Question 11

    The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.

     Question 12

    Consider the following frequency of demand:

       

     

    If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be

    Question 13

    Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.

     

    Question 14

    Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine

    Question 15

    A seed value is a(n)

    Question 16

     

                __________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.

    Question 17

     

                __________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.

     

    Question 18

    Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.

    Question 19

     

                __________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.

    Question 20

    Consider the following graph of sales.

     

     

     

    Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

    Question 21

    Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

                

     

     If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.

    Question 22

     

                 rob

     14, and 15)estion worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows: 

     

    Yield, bushels per acre            Probability

    350      .10

    400      .18

    450      .50

    500      .22

     

     

    The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80.

     

    What is the expected yield of the crop?

     

    Question 23

    __________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

    Question 24

    __________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.

    Question 25

    A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75?  Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

     Question 26

    A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

                           

    Question 27

    The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.

                

    Compute the mean drying time.  Use two places after the decimal.

     

     Question 28

    An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities.  Each person is limited to one entry.

         

     

    The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________.

     

    Question 29

     

               

                An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D.  The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below.

     

                                                Economic Condition

                            Poor           Average       Good        Excellent

        Investment      (S1)              (S2)           (S3)          (S4)

               A               50                  75              20              30

               B               80                  15              40              50

               C           -100                 300             -50              10     

               D               25                  25              25              25 

     

    If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?

     

    Question 30

     The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.

                         

     

    If he is conservative, how many new workers will he hire?

     

    Question 31

    Consider the following distribution and random numbers:

     

     

    If a simulation begins with the first random number, what would the first simulation value would be __________.

    Question 32

    This is the data from the last 4 weeks:

          

     

    Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.

     Question 33

    Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

                

     

    Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.

     

                                       

    Question 34

    Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.

     

                            Year    Demand           Forecast

    2001    16        18

    2002    20        19

    2003    18        24

     

    Question 35

    Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.

     

    Year    Sales

    2001    2

    2002    4

    2003    10

    2004    8

    2005    14

    2006    18

    2007    17

    2008    20

     

     

     

    Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.

    Question 36

    Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.

     

                

    What is the coefficient of determination? Use two significant places after the decimal.

    Question 37

    The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product

     

    Month Actual Demand

    March  20

    April    25

    May     40

    June     35

    July      30

    August            45

     

     

     

    If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

     

    Question 38

               

               

    The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.

     

                

     

    Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.

               

      Question 39

    Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.

                           

     Question 40

    The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :

     

    Year    Sales    Forecast

    2003    7          9

    2004    12        10

    2005    14        15

    2006    20        22

    2007    16        18

    2008    25        21

     

     

    Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

     

    Question 1

    Probability trees are used only to compute conditional probabilities.

    Question 2

    Seventy two percent of all observations fall within 1 standard deviation of the mean if the data is normally distributed.

    Question 3

    If two events are not mutually exclusive, then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

     

    Question 4

    The Hurwicz criterion is a compromise between the minimax and minimin criteria.

     Question 5

     

    Using the minimax regret criterion, we first construct a table of regrets. Subsequently, for each possible decision, we look across the states of nature and make a note of the maximum regret possible for that decision. We then pick the decision with the largest maximum regret.

    Question 6

    The minimin criterion is optimistic.

     Question 7

    The equal likelihood criterion assigns a probability of 0.5 to each state of nature, regardless of how many states of nature there are.

     

    Question 8

    The metropolitan airport commission is considering the establishment of limitations on noise pollution around a local airport.  At the present time, the noise level per jet takeoff in one neighborhood near the airport is approximately normally distributed with a mean of 100 decibels and a standard deviation of 3 decibels.  What is the probability that a randomly selected jet will generate a noise level of more than 105 decibels?

    Question 9

    Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot.  Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. Find the probability that a randomly selected college student will take between 2 and 6 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot.

    Question 10

    The chi-square test is a statistical test to see if an observed data fit a _________.

    Question 11

    A group of friends are planning a recreational outing and have constructed the following payoff table to help them decide which activity to engage in.  Assume that the payoffs represent their level of enjoyment for each activity under the various weather conditions.                   

     

                            Weather

                      Cold    Warm  Rainy

                      S1      S2               S3

    Bike:   A1      10          8           6

    Hike:  A2      14        15           2

    Fish:   A3        7          8           9

     

    If the group chooses to minimize their maximum regret, what activity will they choose?

    Question 12

    A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow.

     

    The maximax strategy is:

    Question 13

    The maximin criterion results in the

    Question 14

    A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow.

            

     

    If the probability of brisk business is .40 and for slow business is .60, the expected value of perfect information is:

     

    Question 15

    A life insurance company wants to update its actuarial tables. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 71 years and a standard deviation of 3.5 years. What proportion of the plan participants are expected to see their 75th birthday? Note: Write your answers with two places after the decimal, rounding off as appropriate. 

    Question 16

    A brand of television has a lifetime that is normally distributed with a mean of 7 years and a standard deviation of 2.5 years. What is the probability that a randomly chosen TV will last more than 8 years? Note: Write your answers with two places after the decimal, rounding off as appropriate.

    Question 17

    A manager has developed a payoff table that indicates the profits associated with a set of alternatives under 2 possible states of nature.

     

                Alt       S1           S2

                1          10             2

                2          -2              8

                3            8             5

    Compute the expected value of perfect information assuming that the probability of S2 is equal to 0.4.

     Question 18

    A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow.

     

    If the probability of brisk business is .40, what is the numerical maximum expected value?

     Question 19

    The quality control manager for ENTA Inc. must decide whether to accept (a1), further analyze (a2) or reject (a3) a lot of incoming material. Assume the following payoff table is available. Historical data indicates that there is 30% chance that the lot is poor quality (s1), 50 % chance that the lot is fair quality (s2) and 20% chance that the lot is good quality (s3).

            

     

    What is the numerical value of the maximin?

               

    Question 20

     

    The quality control manager for ENTA Inc. must decide whether to accept (a1), further analyze (a2) or reject (a3) a lot of incoming material. Assume the following payoff table is available. Historical data indicates that there is 30% chance that the lot is poor quality (s1), 50 % chance that the lot is fair quality (s2) and 20% chance that the lot is good quality (s3).

            

     

    What is the numerical value of the minimax regret?

    Question 1

    If two events are not mutually exclusive, then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

    Question 2

     

    Probability trees are used only to compute conditional probabilities.

     Question 3

    Seventy two percent of all observations fall within 1 standard deviation of the mean if the data is normally distributed.

     

    Question 4

    The maximin approach involves choosing the alternative with the highest or lowest payoff.

    Question 5

     

    Using the minimax regret criterion, we first construct a table of regrets. Subsequently, for each possible decision, we look across the states of nature and make a note of the maximum regret possible for that decision. We then pick the decision with the largest maximum regret.

    Question 6

    The Hurwicz criterion is a compromise between the minimax and minimin criteria.

    Question 7

    The equal likelihood criterion assigns a probability of 0.5 to each state of nature, regardless of how many states of nature there are.

    Question 8

    The metropolitan airport commission is considering the establishment of limitations on noise pollution around a local airport.  At the present time, the noise level per jet takeoff in one neighborhood near the airport is approximately normally distributed with a mean of 100 decibels and a standard deviation of 3 decibels.  What is the probability that a randomly selected jet will generate a noise level of more than 105 decibels?

    Question 9

    Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot.  Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. Find the probability that a randomly selected college student will take between 2 and 6 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot.

    Question 10

    A professor would like to utilize the normal distribution to assign grades such that 5% of students receive A's.  If the exam average is 62 with a standard deviation of 13, what grade should be the cutoff for an A? (Round your answer.)

    Question 11

    A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow.

        

     

    The maximax strategy is:

    Question 12

    The maximin criterion results in the

    Question 13

    A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow.

     

    If the probability of brisk business is .40 and for slow business is .60, the expected value of perfect information is:

    Question 14

    A group of friends are planning a recreational outing and have constructed the following payoff table to help them decide which activity to engage in.  Assume that the payoffs represent their level of enjoyment for each activity under the various weather conditions.                   

     

                            Weather

                      Cold    Warm  Rainy

                      S1      S2               S3

    Bike:   A1      10          8           6

    Hike:  A2      14        15           2

    Fish:   A3        7          8           9

     

    What is the conservative decision for this situation?

     

    Question 15

     

               

                A brand of television has a lifetime that is normally distributed with a mean of 7 years and a standard deviation of 2.5 years. What is the probability that a randomly chosen TV will last more than 8 years? Note: Write your answers with two places after the decimal, rounding off as appropriate.

    Question 16

    A life insurance company wants to update its actuarial tables. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 71 years and a standard deviation of 3.5 years. What proportion of the plan participants are expected to see their 75th birthday? Note: Write your answers with two places after the decimal, rounding off as appropriate. 

     

    Question 17

    A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow.

     

    If the probability of brisk business is .40, what is the numerical maximum expected value?

    Question 18

     

    A group of friends are planning a recreational outing and have constructed the following payoff table to help them decide which activity to engage in.  Assume that the payoffs represent their level of enjoyment for each activity under the various weather conditions.                   

     

                            Weather

                      Cold    Warm  Rainy

                      S1      S2               S3

    Bike:   A1      10          8           6

    Hike:  A2      14        15           2

    Fish:   A3        7          8           9

     

    If the probabilities of cold weather (S1), warm weather (S2), and rainy weather (S3) are 0.2, 0.4, and 0.4, respectively what is the EVPI for this situation?

    Question 19

     

    A manager has developed a payoff table that indicates the profits associated with a set of alternatives under 2 possible states of nature.

     

                Alt       S1           S2

                1          10             2

                2          -2              8

                3            8             5

     

    What is the highest expected value? Assume that the probability of S2 is equal to 0.4.

     

    Question 20

     

    The quality control manager for ENTA Inc. must decide whether to accept (a1), further analyze (a2) or reject (a3) a lot of incoming material. Assume the following payoff table is available. Historical data indicates that there is 30% chance that the lot is poor quality (s1), 50 % chance that the lot is fair quality (s2) and 20% chance that the lot is good quality (s3).

      

     

    What is the numerical value of the maximin?

    Question 1

     

    Seventy two percent of all observations fall within 1 standard deviation of the mean if the data is normally distributed.

     

    Question 2

     

    Probability trees are used only to compute conditional probabilities.

    Question 3

     

               

                If two events are not mutually exclusive, then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

     

    Question 4

     

    The Hurwicz criterion is a compromise between the maximax and maximin criteria.

     

    Question 5

     

               

                The maximin approach involves choosing the alternative with the highest or lowest payoff.

     Question 6

     

               

                The Hurwicz criterion is a compromise between the minimax and minimin criteria.

    Question 7

    The equal likelihood criterion assigns a probability of 0.5 to each state of nature, regardless of how many states of nature there are.

     

    Question 8

     

    The chi-square test is a statistical test to see if an observed data fit a _________.

     

    Question 9

     

    A professor would like to utilize the normal distribution to assign grades such that 5% of students receive A's.  If the exam average is 62 with a standard deviation of 13, what grade should be the cutoff for an A? (Round your answer.)

    Question 10

    The metropolitan airport commission is considering the establishment of limitations on noise pollution around a local airport.  At the present time, the noise level per jet takeoff in one neighborhood near the airport is approximately normally distributed with a mean of 100 decibels and a standard deviation of 3 decibels.  What is the probability that a randomly selected jet will generate a noise level of more than 105 decibels?

    Question 11

    A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow.

            

     

    If the probability of brisk business is .40 and for slow business is .60, the expected value of perfect information is:

               

    Question 12

     

    A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow.

       

     

    The maximin strategy is:

     

    Question 13

    Determining the worst payoff for each alternative and choosing the alternative with the best worst is called

    Question 14

    A group of friends are planning a recreational outing and have constructed the following payoff table to help them decide which activity to engage in.  Assume that the payoffs represent their level of enjoyment for each activity under the various weather conditions.                   

     

                            Weather

                      Cold    Warm  Rainy

                      S1      S2               S3

    Bike:   A1      10          8           6

    Hike:  A2      14        15           2

    Fish:   A3        7          8           9

     

    What is the conservative decision for this situation?

    Question 15

    A life insurance company wants to update its actuarial tables. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 71 years and a standard deviation of 3.5 years. What proportion of the plan participants are expected to see their 75th birthday? Note: Write your answers with two places after the decimal, rounding off as appropriate. 

    Question 16

    A brand of television has a lifetime that is normally distributed with a mean of 7 years and a standard deviation of 2.5 years. What is the probability that a randomly chosen TV will last more than 8 years? Note: Write your answers with two places after the decimal, rounding off as appropriate.

    Question 17

    The quality control manager for ENTA Inc. must decide whether to accept (a1), further analyze (a2) or reject (a3) a lot of incoming material. Assume the following payoff table is available. Historical data indicates that there is 30% chance that the lot is poor quality (s1), 50 % chance that the lot is fair quality (s2) and 20% chance that the lot is good quality (s3).

     

    What is the numerical value of the maximin?

    Question 18

    Consider the following decision tree.

     

     

    What is the expected value for the best decision? Round your answer to the nearest whole number.

     

    Question 19

    A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow.

            

     

    If the probability of brisk business is .40, what is the numerical maximum expected value?

     

    Question 20

    A manager has developed a payoff table that indicates the profits associated with a set of alternatives under 2 possible states of nature.

     

                Alt       S1           S2

                1          10             2

                2          -2              8

                3            8             5

     

    What is the highest expected value? Assume that the probability of S2 is equal to 0.4.

     

     

    Question 1

     

    Probability trees are used only to compute conditional probabilities.

     

    Question 2

     

    If two events are not mutually exclusive, then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

     

    Question 3

    Seventy two percent of all observations fall within 1 standard deviation of the mean if the data is normally distributed.

     

    Question 4

     

    The Hurwicz criterion is a compromise between the maximax and maximin criteria.

    Question 5

     

     

    The maximin approach involves choosing the alternative with the highest or lowest payoff.

    Question 6

     

     

    The minimin criterion is optimistic.

     

    Question 7

     

     

     

    Both maximin and minimin criteria are optimistic.

     

    Question 8

     

     

     

    A professor would like to utilize the normal distribution to assign grades such that 5% of students receive A's. If the exam average is 62 with a standard deviation of 13, what grade should be the cutoff for an A? (Round your answer.)

     

    Question 9

     

    The metropolitan airport commission is considering the establishment of limitations on noise pollution around a local airport. At the present time, the noise level per jet takeoff in one neighborhood near the airport is approximately normally distributed with a mean of 100 decibels and a standard deviation of 3 decibels. What is the probability that a randomly selected jet will generate a noise level of more than 105 decibels?

     

    Question 10

     

     

    The chisquare test is a statistical test to see if an observed data fit a _________.

    Question 11

     

    The maximin criterion results in the

    Question 12

     

     

    A group of friends are planning a recreational outing and have constructed the following payoff table to help them decide which activity to engage in. Assume that the payoffs represent their level of enjoyment for each activity under the various weather conditions.

     

                            Weather          

                            Cold    Warm Rainy

                            S1        S2        S3

    Bike:    A1       10        8          6

    Hike: A2         14        15        2

    Fish:    A3       7          8          9

     

     

    What is the conservative decision for this situation?

     

    Question 13

     

    A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow.

     

    The maximax strategy is:

     

     Question 14

     

     

     

    A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has   constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow.

     

     

    The maximin strategy is:

    Question 15

     

    A brand of television has a lifetime that is normally distributed with a mean of 7 years and a standard deviation of 2.5 years. What is the probability that a randomly chosen TV will last more than 8 years? Note: Write your answers with two places after the decimal, rounding off as appropriate.

     

    Question 16

     

     

     

    A life insurance company wants to update its actuarial tables. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a

     

     

     

    mean of 71 years and a standard deviation of 3.5 years. What proportion of the plan participants are expected to see their 75th birthday? Note: Write your answers with two places after the decimal, rounding off as appropriate.

     

    Question 17

     

    A group of friends are planning a recreational outing and have constructed the following payoff table to help them decide which activity to engage in. Assume that the payoffs represent their level of enjoyment for each activity under the various weather conditions.

     

                            Weather          

                            Cold    Warm Rainy

                            S1        S2        S3

    Bike:    A1       10        8          6

    Hike: A2         14        15        2

    Fish:    A3       7          8          9

     

    If the probabilities of cold weather (S1), warm weather (S2), and rainy weather (S3) are 0.2, 0.4, and 0.4, respectively what is the EVPI for this situation?

     

     

      Question 18

     

     

     

    A manager has developed a payoff table that indicates the profits associated with a set of alternatives under 2 possible states of nature.

     

    Alt       S1        S2

    1          10        2

    2          2         8

    3          8          5

     

    What is the highest expected value? Assume that the probability of S2 is equal to 0.4

     

     

    Evaluation Method     Correct Answer           Case Sensitivity

    Exact Match    6.8      

     

    Question 19

     

    Consider the following decision tree.

     

    What is the expected value for the best decision? Round your answer to the nearest whole number.

     

    Question 20

     

    The quality control manager for ENTA Inc. must decide whether to accept (a1), further analyze (a2) or reject (a3) a lot of incoming material. Assume the following payoff table is available. Historical data indicates that there is 30% chance that the lot is poor quality (s1), 50 % chance that the lot is fair quality (s2) and 20% chance that the lot is good quality (s3).

     

    What is the numerical value of the minimax regret?

     

    Question 1

     

    Seventy two percent of all observations fall within 1 standard deviation of the mean if the data is normally distributed.

    Question 2

    Probability trees are used only to compute conditional probabilities.

    Question 3

    If two events are not mutually exclusive, then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

     

    Question 4

     

    Using the minimax regret criterion, we first construct a table of regrets. Subsequently, for each possible decision, we look across the states of nature and make a note of the maximum regret possible for that decision. We then pick the decision with the largest maximum regret.

     

    Question 5

     

    Both maximin and minimin criteria are optimistic.

     

               

     Question 6

     

    The Hurwicz criterion is a compromise between the maximax and maximin criteria.

     

    Question 7

     

    The maximin approach involves choosing the alternative with the highest or lowest payoff.

    Question 8

     

    Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot.  Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. Find the probability that a randomly selected college student will take between 2 and 6 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot.

               

    Question 9

     

    The chi-square test is a statistical test to see if an observed data fit a _________.

               

     Question 10

     

    A professor would like to utilize the normal distribution to assign grades such that 5% of students receive A's.  If the exam average is 62 with a standard deviation of 13, what grade should be the cutoff for an A? (Round your answer.)

               

     Question 11

    A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow.

           

     

    The maximax strategy is:

     

                                       

     Question 12

     

    A group of friends are planning a recreational outing and have constructed the following payoff table to help them decide which activity to engage in.  Assume that the payoffs represent their level of enjoyment for each activity under the various weather conditions.                   

     

                            Weather

                      Cold    Warm  Rainy

                      S1      S2               S3

    Bike:   A1      10          8           6

    Hike:  A2      14        15           2

    Fish:   A3        7          8           9

     

    If the group chooses to minimize their maximum regret, what activity will they choose?

    Answer                                   

                Selected Answer:           

    A3

    Correct Answer:             

    Any of the above

                                       

     Question 13

     

               

                A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow.

     

                

     

    The maximin strategy is:

     

    Question 14

    Determining the worst payoff for each alternative and choosing the alternative with the best worst is called

                                       

     Question 15

    A life insurance company wants to update its actuarial tables. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 71 years and a standard deviation of 3.5 years. What proportion of the plan participants are expected to see their 75th birthday? Note: Write your answers with two places after the decimal, rounding off as appropriate. 

     

     Question 16

     

    A brand of television has a lifetime that is normally distributed with a mean of 7 years and a standard deviation of 2.5 years. What is the probability that a randomly chosen TV will last more than 8 years? Note: Write your answers with two places after the decimal, rounding off as appropriate.

     

    Question 17

    The quality control manager for ENTA Inc. must decide whether to accept (a1), further analyze (a2) or reject (a3) a lot of incoming material. Assume the following payoff table is available. Historical data indicates that there is 30% chance that the lot is poor quality (s1), 50 % chance that the lot is fair quality (s2) and 20% chance that the lot is good quality (s3).

            

    What is the numerical value of the maximin?

     

    Evaluation Method     Correct Answer           Case Sensitivity

      Exact Match  40       

     

    Question 18

     

    The quality control manager for ENTA Inc. must decide whether to accept (a1), further analyze (a2) or reject (a3) a lot of incoming material. Assume the following payoff table is available. Historical data indicates that there is 30% chance that the lot is poor quality (s1), 50 % chance that the lot is fair quality (s2) and 20% chance that the lot is good quality (s3).

           

     

    What is the numerical value of the minimax regret?

                           

     Question 19

    A business owner is trying to decide whether to buy, rent, or lease office space and has constructed the following payoff table based on whether business is brisk or slow.

     

    If the probability of brisk business is .40, what is the numerical maximum expected value?

               

    Question 20

     

    A manager has developed a payoff table that indicates the profits associated with a set of alternatives under 2 possible states of nature.

     

                Alt       S1           S2

                1          10             2

                2          -2              8

                3            8             5

    Compute the expected value of perfect information assuming that the probability of S2 is equal to 0.4.

    Question 1

    Probability trees are used only to compute conditional probabilities.

    Question 2

    If two events are not mutually exclusive, then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

    Question 3

     

    Seventy two percent of all observations fall within 1 standard deviation of the mean if the data is normally distributed.

    Question 4

    The equal likelihood criterion assigns a probability of 0.5 to each state of nature, regardless of how many states of nature there are.

    Question 5

    The maximin approach involves choosing the alternative with the highest or lowest payoff.

    Question 6

     

    Using the minimax regret criterion, we first construct a table of regrets. Subsequently, for each possible decision, we look across the states of nature and make a note of the maximum regret possible for that decision. We then pick the decision with the largest maximum regret.

     Question 7

    The Hurwicz criterion is a compromise between the minimax and minimin criteria.

     

    Question 1

     

    Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.

               

    Question 2

    A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.

               

    Question 3

    An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.

    Question 4

    A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.

    Question 5

    Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables.

    Question 6

    Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.

     

    Question 7

    Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.

     

    Question 8

     

    The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.

               

    Question 9

     

    Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?

               

    Question 10

    In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.

     

    Question 11

    The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.

     

    Question 12

    A seed value is a(n)

    Question 13

    Consider the following frequency of demand:

    If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be

    Question 14

    Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.

    Question 15

    Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine

    Question 16

    __________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.

    Question 17

     

    __________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.

               

    Question 18

    In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.

     

    Question 19

     

    Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

     

     

    If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.

               

    Question 20

    Consider the following graph of sales.

     

    Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

               

    Question 21

     

    Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.

    Question 22

     

    Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?

     

    Question 23

    __________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.

               

    Question 24

    Consider the following demand and forecast.

    Period  Demand          Forecast

    1          7          10

    2          12        15

    3          18        20

    4          22       

     

     

    If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?

    Question 25

    The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.

     

    Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal.

    Question 26

     

    An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week. The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below. The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints.

    xi         0          1          2          3          4          5          6

    p(xi)     .10       .15       .18       .20       .20       .10       .07

     

     

    What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer to two places after the decimal.

    Question 27

    A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

    Question 28

    A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.   

     Question 29

    The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.

    If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information? Round your answer to the nearest dollar.

     Question 30

    An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D. The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below.

     

    Economic Condition

    Poor Average Good Excellent

    Investment (S1) (S2) (S3) (S4)

    A 50 75 20 30

    B 80 15 40 50

    C -100 300 -50 10

    D 25 25 25 25

     

    If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?

    Question 31

    A normal distribution has a mean of 500 and a standard deviation of 50. A manager wants to simulate one value from this distribution, and has drawn the number 1.4 randomly. What is the simulated value?

     

    Question 32

     

    Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.

     

     

    What is the coefficient of determination? Use two significant places after the decimal.

    Question 33

     

    Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.

     

    Year Demand Forecast

    2001    16        18

    2002    20        19

    2003    18        24

               

    Question 34

     

    Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.

    Question 35

     

    Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

     

     

    Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.

    Question 36

     

               

                Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.

    Year    Sales

    2001    2

    2002    4

    2003    10

    2004    8

    2005    14

    2006    18

    2007    17

    2008    20

     

     

     

    Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.

     

    Question 37

     

               

                The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :

    Year    Sales    Forecast

    2003    7          9

    2004    12        10

    2005    14        15

    2006    20        22

    2007    16        18

    2008    25        21

     

     

    Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

     

    Question 38

     

    The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.

     

    Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.

               

     Question 39

    Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.

     

    Question 40

     

               

                The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.

    Month Actual Demand

    March  20

    April    25

    May     40

    June     35

    July      30

    August            45

     

     

    Use exponential smoothing with α = .2 and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.

     

    Question 1

     

    Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.

     

               

     Question 2

     

    A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.

     

     Question 3

     

    A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.

     

    Question 4

     

    A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.

               

     Question 5

    Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.

               

    Question 6

    Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables.

                           

     Question 7

    The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.

               

    Question 8

    Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.

     

    Question 9

    A company markets educational software products, and is ready to place three new products on the market. Past experience has shown that for this particular software, the chance of "success" is 80%. Assume that the probability of success is independent for each product. What is the probability that exactly 1 of the 3 products is successful?

     

    Question 10

     

    __________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.

               

     Question 11

    The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.

     

    Question 12

     

               

                Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table below.  The average number of breakdowns from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.

     

    No. of breakdowns per week  Probability       Cumulative probability

    0          .10       .10

    1          .25       .35

    2          .36       .71

    3          .22       .93

    4          .07       1.00

     

     

    What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns?

                           

     Question 13

    In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by __________ a probability distribution.

    Question 14

    Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine

     

    Question 15

    A seed value is a(n)

     

     Question 16

    __________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.

     

    Question 17

     

               

    __________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

     

                                       

    Question 18

    __________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.

                           

     Question 19

     

    Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.

               

    Question 20

     

               

                Consider the following demand and forecast.

     

    Period  Demand          Forecast

    1          7          10

    2          12        15

    3          18        20

    4          22       

     

     

    If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?

                           

    Question 21

     

    Consider the following graph of sales.

     

    Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

               

    Question 22

     

    Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?

     

    Question 23

     

               

    __________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.

               

    Question 24

     

    __________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.

                                       

     Question 25

     

               

                An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week.  The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below.  The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints.

     

    xi         0          1          2          3          4          5          6

    p(xi)     .10       .15       .18       .20       .20       .10       .07

     

     

    What is the average number of complaints received per week? Round your answer to two places after the decimal.

     

                                       

     Question 26

     

    A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

     

                                       

     Question 27

    An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities.  Each person is limited to one entry.

            

     

    The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________.

    Question 28

    A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75?  Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

    Question 29

    The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.  The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000). 

    If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information?  Note:  Please express your answer as a whole number in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).  Round to the nearest whole number, if necessary. 

    Question 30

    Consider the following decision tree.

     What is the expected value at node 4? Round your answer to the nearest whole number. Do not include the dollar sign “$” in your answer.

    Question 31

     

    A normal distribution has a mean of 500 and a standard deviation of 50. A manager wants to simulate one value from this distribution, and has drawn the number 1.4 randomly.  What is the simulated value?

               

     Question 32

     

    Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

                

     

    Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.

     

     Question 33

    The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.

     

    Month Actual Demand

    March  20

    April    25

    May     40

    June     35

    July      30

    August            45

     

     

    Use exponential smoothing with α = .2  and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.

    Answer                                   

                Selected Answer:           31.6

    Correct Answer:         

     

    Evaluation Method     Correct Answer           Case Sensitivity

      Exact Match  31.6    

               

     Question 34

                Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.

                           

    Question 35

     

    Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.

     

     Question 36

    Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

    Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.

     

    Question 37

     

               

    The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product

     

    Month Actual Demand

    March  20

    April    25

    May     40

    June     35

    July      30

    August            45

     

     

     If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.

     

     

    Question 38

     

    Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.

     

    Year    Sales

    2001    2

    2002    4

    2003    10

    2004    8

    2005    14

    2006    18

    2007    17

    2008    20

     

    Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.

     

     

    Question 39

     

    This is the data from the last 4 weeks:

             

     

    Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.

               

     Question 40

     

    Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.

     

    What is the coefficient of determination? Note:  please report your answer with 2 places after the decimal point.

    Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters

     

    2.       A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval

     

    3.       An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.

    4.       A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches

    5.       Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model

    6.       A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.

     

    7.       The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future

     

    8.       Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns

     

    9.       Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot.  Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?

     

    10.   A company markets educational software products, and is ready to place three new products on the market. Past experience has shown that for this particular software, the chance of "success" is 80%. Assume that the probability of success is independent for each product. What is the probability that exactly 1 of the 3 products is successful

    11.   The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision

     

    12.   In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by __________ a probability distribution

    13.   Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.

    14.  Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers

     

     

    15.   Consider the following frequency of demand: 

     

    If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be

     

     

    16.   Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

     

     

    17.   _______ is a linear regression model relating demand to time

    18.   _______  methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process

    19.  Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable

     

    20.   ____________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.

    21.   ________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behaviour

    22.   __________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.

     

    23.   __________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.

    24.   Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the mostslowly to sudden changes in forecast errors

     

    25.   A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal

     

    26.   An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities.  Each person is limited to one entry.

     

                

     

    The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is _______

     

    27.   A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75?  Round your answer to four places after the decimal

     

     

    28.   A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times?  Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

    29.   The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.  The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).  

     

                            

     

    If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information?  Note:  Please express your answer as a whole number in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).  Round to the nearest whole number, if necessary. 

     

    30.   Consider the following decision tree. 

     



     

    What is the expected value at node 4? Round your answer to the nearest whole number. Do not include the dollar sign “$” in your answer

     

     

    31.  Consider the following probability distribution:

    Demand

    Probability

    0

    0.15

    1

    0.30

    2

    0.25

    3

    0.15

    4

    0.15

    Partition 100 numbers from 0 to 99 according to the probability of each demand value, starting with 0. A number from the 100 numbers is going to be

    selected. What is the corresponding demand value if 62 is selected?

     

     

    32.   Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: 

                

     

    Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal

     

     

    33.   Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: 

    Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.

     

    34.  Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.

     

    Year

    Sales

    2001

    2

    2002

    4

    2003

    10

    2004

    8

    2005

    14

    2006

    18

    2007

    17

    2008

    20



     

     

    Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal.

     

    35.   This is the data from the last 4 weeks:

     Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.

     

     36.   The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.


    Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.

     

    37.   Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.

     

     

    38.  Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.

     

     

    39.  Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.

     

                            Year    Demand           Forecast

    2001

    16

    18

    2002

    20

    19

    2003

    18

    24

     

     

    40.  The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.

     

    Month

    Actual Demand

    March

    20

    April

    25

    May

    40

    June

    35

    July

    30

    August

    45



     

    Use exponential smoothing with α = .2  and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.

     

     

     

     

                                       

     

    Answer
    Submitted by AccountingExpert on 2014/08/02 01:59
    teacher rated 211 times
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    Price: $35.00

     

    MAT540 Week 5 Midterm Latest 2015 Answers




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